MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f9ab88c541a2d8d1a2962c4c91f969b75a25170bb0a8a3258319e7820e3b0aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 55,712$30,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,096.05 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 50,000$23,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,000 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Colorado Rockies | 32c | 2,043$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Colorado Rockies | 56c | 1,777$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 1,436$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.63 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 1,354$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,156$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.25 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 1,087$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 1,000$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 840.26$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 775.82$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.94 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 320.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 269.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 228.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 201.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 200.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c44…6752backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 176.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 174$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 119.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 112.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 111.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…36c8backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 99.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 94.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Colorado Rockies | 26c | 84.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 75.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 74.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 71.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 61.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 61.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 59.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Colorado Rockies | 31c | 53.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 46.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Colorado Rockies | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 31.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…7bb7backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 29.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 20.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 18.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.