Tennis · resolved market
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Emiliana Arango
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3300b6ec4cee0337c31347d40a5471d97e5a1383f70a21712e722fb57817fcd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arangoof Uchijima, Arango
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x620b…d4adbacked Uchijima | 55c | 5,999$3,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,294.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arango | 50c | 4,701$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.29 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed Uchijima | 63c | 4,096$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arango | 37c | 1,633$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.15 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…a80dbacked Arango | 47c | 1,256$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9e…b608backed Uchijima | 53c | 1,256$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Arango | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Arango | 57c | 923.14$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.5 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Uchijima | 52c | 917.47$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.74 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Arango | 63c | 911.15$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.13 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Uchijima | 58c | 564.22$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.25 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Uchijima | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Uchijima | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…8757backed Arango | 64c | 499.88$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Uchijima | 34c | 472.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Uchijima | 54c | 441.96$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.66 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Arango | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 307 | 39.1%120 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arango | 45c | 344$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.79 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Arango | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Arango | 40c | 312.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.5 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Arango | 39c | 282.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.86 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Arango | 64c | 270.11$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Uchijima | 46c | 231.68$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Arango | 45c | 212.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Uchijima | 48c | 196.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Arango | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Arango | 64c | 170.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…308abacked Arango | 66c | 130.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…ab82backed Arango | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Uchijima | 41c | 122.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Arango | 44c | 112.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Arango | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Uchijima | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…7341backed Arango | 66c | 67.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Uchijima | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Arango | 73c | 54.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Uchijima | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…98b7backed Arango | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Arango | 58c | 46.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Arango | 70c | 42.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Arango | 46c | 42.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…c5aebacked Arango | 40c | 40.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…e757backed Arango | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Arango | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Uchijima | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2457…54acbacked Arango | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Arango | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 729 | 57.3%418 W · 311 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a9…df22backed Arango | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Arango | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…aeb5backed Uchijima | 46c | 24.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Uchijima | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Arango | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…9498backed Uchijima | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Arango | 63c | 18.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.