Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x334d2798506bffededae32c9670e6cfb32be86126f2f37f044159d3ec85dbf26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,521 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3952…c2b4backed Under | 52c | 520$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…2b54backed Over | 47c | 520$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…2de7backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…c3b9backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…f53cbacked Over | 47c | 490$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…a23ebacked Under | 52c | 490$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…c217backed Under | 52c | 430$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…62aabacked Over | 47c | 430$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…efeebacked Over | 27c | 398.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Over | 51c | 196.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 163.26$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Under | 54c | 146.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…9474backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 50c | 80.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Over | 49c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…52d4backed Under | 76c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Under | 79c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)Team Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.