Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c8c2e606714ea22fd34bd5d196fd5c765068f7d43b22b5952bf42713116bb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,059 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa526…c9f9backed Team Spirit | 34c | 1,014$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.47 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 1,014$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.47 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…f294backed Team Spirit | 30c | 510$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…43c1backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 510$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f0…67c9backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…2213backed Team Spirit | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports | 66c | 202.98$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 183.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Spirit | 35c | 177.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…6f07backed Team Spirit | 45c | 155.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Team Spirit | 42c | 36.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 34.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit | 30c | 33.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Team Spirit | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…149bbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba6…fd6ebacked Tundra Esports | 70c | 20.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.