NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x335e05a05829ab0b5b70841467efbaabe57684285c6aed824c13a1949058ed2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Bucks, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bucks | 51c | 50,311$25,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,505.38 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 50c | 19,102$9,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,630.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…de3ebacked Kings | 46c | 10,919$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,919.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Bucks | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.99 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 48c | 8,272$3,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,282.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Kings | 50c | 5,990$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.88 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 49c | 4,582$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.01 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Kings | 50c | 4,027$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.5 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Kings | 48c | 2,148$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.92 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Kings | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Kings | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks | 54c | 1,140$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Kings | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.84 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Kings | 48c | 956.25$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.25 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb151…7cd8backed Bucks | 50c | 883.6$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Kings | 50c | 825.6$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Kings | 50c | 796.08$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Kings | 47c | 659.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.09 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kings | 50c | 539$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 48c | 507$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.95 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Bucks | 53c | 410$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Kings | 51c | 389.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.44 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Bucks | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d4…ad20backed Bucks | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings | 46c | 279$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.89 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Kings | 48c | 275$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks | 54c | 258$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 26c | 223$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Kings | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Bucks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Kings | 45c | 155.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Bucks | 52c | 132.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Bucks | 53c | 127.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Kings | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Bucks | 55c | 112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Bucks | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bucks | 45c | 95.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Kings | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Bucks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e4…6c67backed Bucks | 51c | 90.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Bucks | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Bucks | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…fea4backed Kings | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Bucks | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Bucks | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kings | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed Bucks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Bucks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Bucks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Bucks | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…e65abacked Bucks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeff…a9f1backed Bucks | 53c | 27.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…7b11backed Bucks | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Kings | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Bucks | 53c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Kings | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)this page
- Kings vs. BucksKings won
- Kings vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Kings vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Kings vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.