Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33862dc831319e2e07093a60066d916de076975987fd7601000069f041b570fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 34c | 633.95$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.57 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 507.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 35c | 217.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 41c | 204.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 27c | 201.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 192.07$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 190.16$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 186.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 62c | 177.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…d655backed No | 75c | 157.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 141.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 77c | 138.31$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 20c | 125.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 35c | 115.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 26c | 112.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 111$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 102.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 43c | 96.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 13c | 93.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 93.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 88.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 81.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 79.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 19c | 78.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 55c | 78.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 39c | 73.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 60.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 51.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 51.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5186…2515backed Yes | 36c | 48.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 36c | 47.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 64c | 45.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…28eebacked Yes | 42c | 44.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 43.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 58c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 35c | 43.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 33c | 42.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 67c | 37.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 63c | 37.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 36.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 67c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 35.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 35.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 33.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 61c | 31.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 34c | 30.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…7fefbacked Yes | 44c | 26.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 68c | 24.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 56c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 79c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.