Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34d427f742ad366c0ca72b391101bb17cb6249607f5eabb98af2db19c4c4a40c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 469.21$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 12c | 436.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 41c | 224.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 52c | 220.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 203.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 7c | 190.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 47c | 160.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 158.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 74c | 145$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 130$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 119.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 118.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…4d38backed No | 13c | 109.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 29c | 107.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 45c | 104.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 11c | 104.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 95.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 41c | 93.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 46c | 82.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 45c | 79.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 42c | 79.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 72c | 74.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 61c | 59.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 67c | 57.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 46c | 56.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 60c | 55.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 35c | 53.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 70c | 53.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 52.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 52.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 50.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 45c | 46.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 45.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 44c | 43.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 67c | 41.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 30c | 41.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 39.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 39c | 37.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 44c | 37.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 35c | 36.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes | 62c | 35.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 35.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 67c | 33.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 70c | 32.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 32.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 59c | 32.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 51c | 31.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…292bbacked No | 58c | 31.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 71c | 29.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 68c | 29.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 40c | 29.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…07c6backed No | 55c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 59c | 26.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 69c | 25.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 67c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 61c | 23.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5186…2515backed Yes | 45c | 23.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 79c | 22.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 69c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed No | 62c | 21.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…d55fbacked Yes | 72c | 19.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 19.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 66c | 18.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…9e11backed Yes | 62c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…9de1backed Yes | 73c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.