Tennis · resolved market
Lexington: Federico Cina vs Elias Ymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d20f3c0aa01d78e35bac260a7f415634b72175764a5511dde9c7aaae4ce819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Federico Cinaof Federico Cina, Elias Ymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4699…5051backed Elias Ymer | 9c | 1,972$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.45 | 975 | 7.9%77 W · 898 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c336backed Elias Ymer | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 221 | 23.1%51 W · 170 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Elias Ymer | 29c | 1,380$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.19 | 334 | 38.6%129 W · 205 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Elias Ymer | 22c | 1,212$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.69 | 1,512 | 24.1%364 W · 1,148 L | -41.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Federico Cina | 77c | 1,111$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Elias Ymer | 14c | 951.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Elias Ymer | 17c | 826.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.37 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…a2d1backed Federico Cina | 72c | 693.36$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.36 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03c6…3dd2backed Federico Cina | 75c | 667.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.41 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Elias Ymer | 25c | 565.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Elias Ymer | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Federico Cina | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 568 | 53.9%306 W · 262 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Elias Ymer | 15c | 306.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 2,069 | 46.7%966 W · 1,103 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Elias Ymer | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Elias Ymer | 19c | 286.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Elias Ymer | 7c | 275.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Elias Ymer | 28c | 252.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 1,580 | 42.3%668 W · 912 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Federico Cina | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Elias Ymer | 14c | 242.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Elias Ymer | 28c | 239.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Federico Cina | 71c | 202.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Elias Ymer | 28c | 149.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,542 | 49.2%759 W · 783 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…d4c0backed Federico Cina | 71c | 142.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 156 | 69.9%109 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Federico Cina | 71c | 142.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3957…35f0backed Federico Cina | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 175 | 72%126 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ce…11a2backed Elias Ymer | 14c | 132.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…13e6backed Federico Cina | 75c | 123.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…32e0backed Elias Ymer | 27c | 120.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Elias Ymer | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,326 | 52.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L | +85.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…8fe4backed Elias Ymer | 29c | 113.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Federico Cina | 78c | 110.06$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Elias Ymer | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Elias Ymer | 24c | 107.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,071 | 36.8%394 W · 677 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Elias Ymer | 26c | 100.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 323 | 29.7%96 W · 227 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Elias Ymer | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…45f6backed Elias Ymer | 14c | 98.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 225 | 44.4%100 W · 125 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Federico Cina | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 299 | 55.2%165 W · 134 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Elias Ymer | 14c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877f…8f3bbacked Federico Cina | 71c | 76.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Elias Ymer | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Elias Ymer | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Federico Cina | 74c | 53.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Elias Ymer | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,632 | 52.7%860 W · 772 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Elias Ymer | 26c | 49.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 593 | 47.4%281 W · 312 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Elias Ymer | 28c | 45.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Elias Ymer | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Federico Cina | 71c | 27.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 443 | 63.4%281 W · 162 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Federico Cina | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,229 | 53.1%653 W · 576 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Federico Cina | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Federico Cina | 72c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.