Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ee260e3bf58f008c68907816cbe88b9c9deeafb66a04f51cd1e77d2e01d952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AEK Lárnakasof Crystal Palace FC, AEK Lárnakas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,377 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AEK Lárnakas | 48c | 2,465$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.71 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AEK Lárnakas | 64c | 1,045$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.67 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Crystal Palace FC | 47c | 832.82$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.71 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed AEK Lárnakas | 42c | 447.06$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…1ab8backed Crystal Palace FC | 55c | 360.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Crystal Palace FC | 35c | 301.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Crystal Palace FC | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Crystal Palace FC | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Crystal Palace FC | 59c | 220.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed2a…ad70backed Crystal Palace FC | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Crystal Palace FC | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc4…3b29backed AEK Lárnakas | 45c | 180.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…21f1backed AEK Lárnakas | 45c | 179.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Crystal Palace FC | 55c | 177.12$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.62 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Crystal Palace FC | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…d1ffbacked Crystal Palace FC | 59c | 168.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…dba8backed Crystal Palace FC | 56c | 141.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked AEK Lárnakas | 40c | 140.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AEK Lárnakas | 43c | 133.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.53 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Crystal Palace FC | 57c | 129.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Crystal Palace FC | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Crystal Palace FC | 36c | 100.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Crystal Palace FC | 57c | 98.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…166fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Crystal Palace FC | 55c | 82.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cad…d61bbacked Crystal Palace FC | 56c | 69.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Crystal Palace FC | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Crystal Palace FC | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Crystal Palace FC | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Crystal Palace FC | 36c | 52.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked AEK Lárnakas | 49c | 47.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Crystal Palace FC | 56c | 47.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Crystal Palace FC | 50c | 36.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…19e7backed Crystal Palace FC | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Crystal Palace FC | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed AEK Lárnakas | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Crystal Palace FC | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Crystal Palace FC | 49c | 29.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed AEK Lárnakas | 66c | 27.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c2…8723backed Crystal Palace FC | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AEK Lárnakas | 43c | 26.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed AEK Lárnakas | 43c | 24.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1892backed Crystal Palace FC | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Crystal Palace FC | 53c | 19.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Crystal Palace FC | 55c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)AEK Lárnakas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.