Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05277987d136a60a15c069090145e5f60abd21ece4209c0ad535f6fa7d3d014b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,248 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 6,244$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.63 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 45c | 5,117$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.65 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 4,950$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,962.62 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 4,503$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.84 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Over | 79c | 3,014$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.05 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 1,400$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.98 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 43c | 783.21$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.91 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 46c | 731.84$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 48c | 652.65$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.54 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b3…5489backed Under | 23c | 523.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6f…11d2backed Over | 77c | 523.09$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -11.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 20c | 472$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.6 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 246.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.65 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 39c | 230.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…66f7backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 20c | 192.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 163$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…cc19backed Over | 80c | 158.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 49c | 138.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf03…a2a4backed Over | 61c | 125.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 50c | 110.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 75c | 109.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 51c | 103.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 22c | 102.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 63c | 95.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 46c | 93.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 23c | 74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0708…3b30backed Under | 69c | 59.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 28c | 42.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a3…22c9backed Over | 72c | 37.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…378bbacked Over | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Under | 54c | 24.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 80c | 24.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 53c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 78c | 13.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)AEK Lárnakas won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)AEK Lárnakas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.