Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a68321f72341efadc61f91b2e8f709830f6b851750c38eaeb712efef35902f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,458 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,950$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.1 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 10c | 722.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 714.09$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Over | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 31c | 578.1$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.66 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…4610backed Under | 69c | 436.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 35c | 394.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 65c | 393.81$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 35c | 372.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 363.04$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 31c | 199.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 67c | 194.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 165.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Under | 66c | 75.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 33c | 68.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 31c | 64.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde42…e01bbacked Over | 34c | 58.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 32c | 49.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 31c | 34.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Under | 70c | 30.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 3.5this page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)AEK Lárnakas won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)AEK Lárnakas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.