Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x685cbd993b1d32201934472e7987abe421700817c82736818795b1c3a56625ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,620 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed No | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 2,074$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.12 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 1,250$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 783.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…7f10backed No | 65c | 250.77$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39f…0af2backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 41c | 177$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 37c | 142.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…5643backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 45c | 120.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 12c | 104.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…6048backed No | 63c | 90.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…1226backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4792…8870backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911f…5ed0backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -6.2wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -8.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 37c | 50.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…f55abacked Yes | 37c | 31.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 2.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 3.5Under won
- Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5)AEK Lárnakas won
- Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5)AEK Lárnakas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.