Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341edfad0fbc1f7c9b5b1a0db7e63a2db560026092838c9f9b91d80f3b2168a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2586…f071backed Heroic | 78c | 4,091$3,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.63 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed South America Rejects | 25c | 3,709$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.15 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed South America Rejects | 21c | 2,790$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.35 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked South America Rejects | 29c | 2,237$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.44 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288b…a713backed Heroic | 78c | 2,135$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed South America Rejects | 25c | 1,432$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.8 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Heroic | 70c | 1,340$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.83 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked South America Rejects | 18c | 1,172$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.96 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked South America Rejects | 29c | 837.87$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.86 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked South America Rejects | 27c | 647.72$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.21 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed South America Rejects | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked South America Rejects | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 77c | 484.08$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Heroic | 69c | 392$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed South America Rejects | 30c | 316.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…d035backed South America Rejects | 31c | 305.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked South America Rejects | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked South America Rejects | 26c | 199.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked Heroic | 73c | 196.86$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Heroic | 71c | 195.54$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic | 77c | 188.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked South America Rejects | 7c | 183$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…89f8backed Heroic | 79c | 180.12$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed South America Rejects | 26c | 165.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Heroic | 69c | 160.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed South America Rejects | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked South America Rejects | 11c | 143.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Heroic | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed South America Rejects | 31c | 99.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed South America Rejects | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked South America Rejects | 19c | 94.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Heroic | 66c | 91.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Heroic | 70c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic | 74c | 39.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…4bf7backed Heroic | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3e…1316backed South America Rejects | 32c | 35.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…5f3bbacked Heroic | 80c | 34.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 3 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 4 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.