Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5abde4343eecaf47810080c47a494dd5478fc629215398642afe30c938f51e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Heroic, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed Heroic | 70c | 1,400$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Heroic | 80c | 995$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 170 | 44.7%76 W · 94 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked South America Rejects | 17c | 944.6$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked South America Rejects | 19c | 905.14$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.47 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects | 30c | 550.34$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed South America Rejects | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed South America Rejects | 19c | 455.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Heroic | 73c | 407.83$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed South America Rejects | 27c | 363.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked South America Rejects | 30c | 338.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked South America Rejects | 16c | 248.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 131 | 41.2%54 W · 77 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked South America Rejects | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 774 | 56.5%437 W · 337 L | +30.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Heroic | 73c | 196.72$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed South America Rejects | 26c | 185.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3a…e03dbacked South America Rejects | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked South America Rejects | 24c | 153.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Heroic | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed South America Rejects | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked South America Rejects | 15c | 96.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3e…1316backed South America Rejects | 17c | 67.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed South America Rejects | 28c | 51.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…b264backed Heroic | 76c | 20.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 3 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
- Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 4 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.