Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 3 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aa9f31688a662955ec8d8fcf163cdf0c55ec2527246ba5b07f6bb1ba28b2e44

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: South America Rejectsof Heroic, South America Rejects
Resolved: Apr 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,654 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc0f5…3d04backed Heroic	54c	8,154$4,415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,414.92	510	49%250 W · 260 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked South America Rejects	35c	5,778$2,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,729.39	1,821	45%820 W · 1,001 L	+33.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed South America Rejects	39c	4,977$1,958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,019.79	1,036	47.2%489 W · 547 L	+15.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed South America Rejects	63c	4,828$3,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,787.81	1,577	43.9%692 W · 885 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked South America Rejects	41c	4,665$1,928 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,737.37	1,155	47.8%552 W · 603 L	+29.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Heroic	14c	4,661$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.35	476	50.8%242 W · 234 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed South America Rejects	59c	3,837$2,254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,582.61	470	46.6%219 W · 251 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Heroic	70c	3,283$2,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,291.49	97	49.5%48 W · 49 L	-7.3wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed South America Rejects	52c	2,180$1,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,043.85	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked Heroic	48c	2,070$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.13	169	45%76 W · 93 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked South America Rejects	59c	1,917$1,133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$783.71	430	49.1%211 W · 219 L	+15.8wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Heroic	67c	1,763$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,181.14	1,202	59.3%713 W · 489 L	+64.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked South America Rejects	55c	1,495$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$667.09	1,066	57%608 W · 458 L	+52.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Heroic	62c	1,428$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$888.75	670	43.3%290 W · 380 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Heroic	47c	1,023$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.2	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked South America Rejects	47c	990.31$463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527.76	772	56.5%436 W · 336 L	+30.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Heroic	63c	924.23$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.46	367	59.1%217 W · 150 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed South America Rejects	38c	789.94$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$492.52	335	49.9%167 W · 168 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Heroic	64c	782.57$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.4	507	69.2%351 W · 156 L	+33.7wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed Heroic	54c	777.92$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.08	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Heroic	62c	678.61$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.93	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked Heroic	59c	565.72$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.77	367	61%224 W · 143 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Heroic	59c	556.41$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.22	551	47.5%262 W · 289 L	+22.3wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Heroic	21c	499.99$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x11e1…8d38backed Heroic	21c	488.3$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.13	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed South America Rejects	35c	482.81$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.02	565	48%271 W · 294 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Heroic	21c	478.94$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.08	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf445…703ebacked Heroic	22c	454.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.09	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4e9…a838backed Heroic	22c	387.56$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.26	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.3wins	+0.23per pick	47cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Heroic	9c	373.41$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.61	460	49.8%229 W · 231 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic	43c	360.07$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.84	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed South America Rejects	30c	333$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.1	336	44%148 W · 188 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Heroic	19c	290.52$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.01	107	38.3%41 W · 66 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic	50c	275.24$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.69	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x968a…3841backed Heroic	64c	272.97$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.7	209	39.2%82 W · 127 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Heroic	71c	269.87$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.61	179	54.2%97 W · 82 L	-12.6wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Heroic	60c	250$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.5	147	51.7%76 W · 71 L	+11.1wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb82d…c40dbacked Heroic	70c	201.53$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.07	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc186…ad81backed Heroic	70c	170.77$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.88	37	67.6%25 W · 12 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked Heroic	61c	165.46$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.93	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Heroic	27c	157.72$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.47	180	42.8%77 W · 103 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Heroic	33c	147.16$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.49	264	54.5%144 W · 120 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ea…594fbacked South America Rejects	36c	135$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.93	159	42.8%68 W · 91 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed South America Rejects	36c	129.18$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.9	147	44.2%65 W · 82 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x912e…0eaebacked Heroic	67c	112.72$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.52	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	-8.3wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10d5…dc17backed Heroic	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	73	76.7%56 W · 17 L	+6.8wins	+0.09per pick	67cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x973a…52eabacked Heroic	68c	98.5$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.98	52	46.2%24 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic	28c	98.4$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	641	23.4%150 W · 491 L	-18.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Heroic	48c	84.89$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.63	958	41.1%394 W · 564 L	+32.7wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf883…b8b4backed Heroic	56c	79.59$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	187	64.7%121 W · 66 L	+17.3wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+15%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked South America Rejects	42c	79.49$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.9	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc568…916dbacked South America Rejects	58c	78.93$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.15	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.8wins	+0.28per pick	52cpaid	+69.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed South America Rejects	35c	78.87$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.04	256	48%123 W · 133 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed South America Rejects	38c	73.56$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.77	1,034	16.3%169 W · 865 L	-158.1wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7028…66d1backed Heroic	46c	72.1$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.04	122	58.2%71 W · 51 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Heroic	55c	70.76$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.92	410	37.3%153 W · 257 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x292d…1321backed Heroic	22c	69.84$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.53	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed South America Rejects	34c	66$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.8	108	52.8%57 W · 51 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x309c…e6fbbacked Heroic	60c	65.07$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.04	20	60%12 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Heroic	55c	60.74$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.49	1,013	45.5%461 W · 552 L	-46.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed Heroic	70c	58.92$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.24	304	60.2%183 W · 121 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x259b…b264backed South America Rejects	47c	44.77$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.88	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddf6…2117backed South America Rejects	34c	42.37$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.96	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Heroic	37c	40.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	546	48.5%265 W · 281 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked South America Rejects	38c	38.66$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.09	245	18.8%46 W · 199 L	-31.2wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-46%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Heroic	68c	36.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	1,260	49.7%626 W · 634 L	+21.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb5…f4f7backed South America Rejects	34c	35.41$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.41	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x633a…43e6backed South America Rejects	53c	27.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.93	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c97…c97abacked Heroic	65c	22.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8105…a0a5backed South America Rejects	54c	22.06$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb354…7d49backed Heroic	65c	20.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	65	72.3%47 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	70cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…3b7fbacked Heroic	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90e6…87a4backed Heroic	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Heroic	68c	19.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	279	52.3%146 W · 133 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 3 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHeroic won
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 4 WinnerSouth America Rejects won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 3 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event