Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 4 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c5c6e9dd1fb76842fdb842d5354698ecc2406efef9d5e99d03e8174763564a3

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: South America Rejectsof Heroic, South America Rejects
Resolved: Apr 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,820 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x93f6…4814backed South America Rejects	41c	7,137$2,961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,175.66	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed South America Rejects	50c	3,708$1,861 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,847.33	130	68.5%89 W · 41 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic	58c	3,272$1,912 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,912.5	1,577	43.9%692 W · 885 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf483…3f62backed Heroic	18c	2,502$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.56	111	50.5%56 W · 55 L	+14.2wins	+0.13per pick	38cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Heroic	33c	2,267$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.96	510	49%250 W · 260 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Heroic	55c	1,957$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.39	400	51.5%206 W · 194 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked South America Rejects	36c	1,732$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,108.43	169	45%76 W · 93 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects	45c	1,259$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$695.35	670	43.3%290 W · 380 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed South America Rejects	39c	831.97$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.5	147	44.2%65 W · 82 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Heroic	58c	771.34$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.37	476	50.8%242 W · 234 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Heroic	42c	720.64$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.21	470	46.6%219 W · 251 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed South America Rejects	65c	675.15$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.72	1,272	45%572 W · 700 L	-40.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic	56c	570.52$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.55	2,378	47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L	+15.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed South America Rejects	55c	565.61$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.7	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked South America Rejects	78c	512.53$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.23	920	56.4%519 W · 401 L	+78.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Heroic	7c	502$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.1	690	33.3%230 W · 460 L	-27.9wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed Heroic	13c	453.19$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.26	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+150.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c07…5feabacked Heroic	48c	397.6$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.85	179	54.2%97 W · 82 L	-12.6wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked South America Rejects	23c	391.98$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.37	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Heroic	66c	386.71$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.08	264	54.5%144 W · 120 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Heroic	64c	305.75$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.68	460	49.8%229 W · 231 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x94ba…001dbacked Heroic	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed South America Rejects	35c	285$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.25	336	44%148 W · 188 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked South America Rejects	40c	254.31$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.46	552	51.6%285 W · 267 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Heroic	6c	204$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	653	37.2%243 W · 410 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf84c…d035backed Heroic	48c	201.83$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-4.6wins	-0.36per pick	51cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x1863…6174backed Heroic	63c	166.2$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.32	304	60.2%183 W · 121 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked South America Rejects	66c	146.32$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.29	430	49.1%211 W · 219 L	+15.8wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c97…c97abacked Heroic	13c	137.26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Heroic	58c	134.45$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.98	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed South America Rejects	25c	125$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.75	225	52.4%118 W · 107 L	+26.0wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Heroic	58c	110.23$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.39	735	54.7%402 W · 333 L	-3.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked South America Rejects	53c	107.6$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.23	526	49.2%259 W · 267 L	+21.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Heroic	46c	106.62$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	180	42.8%77 W · 103 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed South America Rejects	25c	106$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.5	126	51.6%65 W · 61 L	+14.8wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf4f…f538backed South America Rejects	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	69	60.9%42 W · 27 L	+11.0wins	+0.16per pick	45cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Heroic	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	107	38.3%41 W · 66 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked South America Rejects	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+8.4wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked South America Rejects	42c	89.96$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.19	209	54.5%114 W · 95 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Heroic	50c	84.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.09	515	50.9%262 W · 253 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Heroic	32c	54.42$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	958	41.1%394 W · 564 L	+32.7wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed South America Rejects	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	182	48.9%89 W · 93 L	+15.0wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed South America Rejects	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	217	48.8%106 W · 111 L	+15.1wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed South America Rejects	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	253	51.4%130 W · 123 L	+23.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed South America Rejects	25c	53$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.75	302	50%151 W · 151 L	+11.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked South America Rejects	62c	52.83$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.08	338	54.1%183 W · 155 L	+11.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Heroic	48c	50.46$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	252	48.8%123 W · 129 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Heroic	76c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.75	171	46.2%79 W · 92 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed South America Rejects	25c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	164	53.7%88 W · 76 L	+15.1wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xda47…c2e9backed South America Rejects	80c	49.4$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.94	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed South America Rejects	25c	47.74$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.04	479	51.8%248 W · 231 L	+17.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1676…ab19backed South America Rejects	52c	43.65$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.95	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked South America Rejects	52c	43.21$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.74	227	40.5%92 W · 135 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked South America Rejects	58c	41.2$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.3	288	46.9%135 W · 153 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Heroic	37c	40.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	546	48.5%265 W · 281 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…3b7fbacked South America Rejects	36c	40.07$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.64	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Heroic	69c	37.54$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.9	576	54.5%314 W · 262 L	+29.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc8b…01e9backed South America Rejects	48c	36.46$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.96	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed South America Rejects	68c	35.82$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.46	132	62.9%83 W · 49 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce22…5704backed South America Rejects	52c	32.78$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed South America Rejects	62c	32.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.33	160	54.4%87 W · 73 L	-5.4wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8105…a0a5backed South America Rejects	38c	32.41$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.09	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…66d1backed Heroic	64c	31.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	122	58.2%71 W · 51 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked South America Rejects	68c	30.65$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	149	63.1%94 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed South America Rejects	48c	29.97$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.58	129	37.2%48 W · 81 L	-6.8wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5011…6237backed South America Rejects	58c	29.19$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked South America Rejects	73c	23.55$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.36	137	62.8%86 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7560…1ee1backed South America Rejects	48c	22.06$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.47	211	33.6%71 W · 140 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6752…25c2backed Heroic	51c	20.69$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53b…fe03backed South America Rejects	73c	14.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.05	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	-7.7wins	-0.13per pick	70cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 4 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsHeroic won
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerHeroic won
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 3 WinnerSouth America Rejects won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects - Game 4 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event