Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343d367e7cbdb9fd310d592012520e6a35c51e8d5603757d187242650b549248
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 29c | 270.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 15c | 227.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…e2a6backed Yes | 18c | 171.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 59c | 132.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 57c | 128$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 35c | 122.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 46c | 111.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 107.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 79c | 84.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…5ed1backed Yes | 63c | 84.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 32c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 53c | 72.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3376…3c7fbacked No | 66c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 46c | 69.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…8c58backed Yes | 46c | 67.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 36c | 55.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 48.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fd…f242backed Yes | 38c | 48.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 44.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 64c | 42.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93a…3886backed Yes | 55c | 36.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 30c | 36.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 63c | 32.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…1ecabacked Yes | 47c | 29.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on December 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on December 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on December 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on December 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on December 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on December 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.