MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x344e1e2b60a66fdb20119d3667494c4f6fbb1b94e1409fafefbba998cf5ed623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 68c | 386.69$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed New York Yankees | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 182$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 149.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 33c | 126.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed New York Yankees | 32c | 108.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…f6d7backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed New York Yankees | 34c | 84.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Yankees | 32c | 75.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed New York Yankees | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked New York Yankees | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed New York Yankees | 32c | 60.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 56.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 69c | 51.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 30c | 49.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox | 70c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.