MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8490339d6e505167fa4a84cf63b68693c481842446dbf58cfe195a68e654194f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 51c | 1,283$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.35 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 1,263$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 1,074$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 876.23$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Over | 49c | 707.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.46 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 523.83$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.82 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 289.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 72c | 274.83$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 273$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 245$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 199$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 100.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 64c | 72.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 66c | 63.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 69c | 57.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 57c | 54.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 53c | 34.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 34c | 34.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 54c | 33.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 41c | 30.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.