MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e5c1e227f6f16999ff50ae4279001d5da381fbb75956f71f5799dac343c25b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 13,697$6,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,966.38 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 12,259$5,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,612.42 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 32c | 1,337$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.16 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 68c | 1,125$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.1 | 501 | 52.5%263 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 1c | 1,042$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 25c | 883.9$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.29 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 1c | 802.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 59c | 713.7$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.56 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 700$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.73 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 623.31$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.08 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 290$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 195.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 194$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 51c | 190.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 25c | 151.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 63c | 148.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 44c | 147.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 324 | 34.6%112 W · 212 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 131$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 57c | 123.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 69c | 111.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 100.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 56c | 100.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 32c | 98.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 44c | 94.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 56c | 89.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 81.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 50c | 63.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 32c | 51.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 49c | 49.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 45c | 41.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…8b01backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…1407backed Over | 53c | 39.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 30.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 50c | 25.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 50c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 24.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 50c | 20.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.