MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd821bbb8f3fb72b6c1f4b295181c0e6fc123e1d800dc9d447957142804bbb690

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Chicago White Soxof New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox
Resolved: Jul 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $167,876
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $167,676

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,876 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2c33…0563backed Chicago White Sox	56c	150,124$84,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66,054.5	856	45.3%388 W · 468 L	+18.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Yankees	44c	144,443$63,555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63,554.92	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed New York Yankees	44c	3,509$1,543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,543.35	208	45.2%94 W · 114 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees	44c	2,712$1,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,189.28	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees	63c	2,383$1,511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,511.49	2,969	48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed New York Yankees	44c	2,222$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.68	737	48.4%357 W · 380 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c98…f4f4backed Chicago White Sox	57c	1,754$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.39	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox	18c	1,680$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,382.03	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox	67c	1,560$1,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$521.42	2,012	51.2%1,031 W · 981 L	+43.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Chicago White Sox	56c	1,199$671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$527.56	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed New York Yankees	43c	1,078$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.43	1,555	48.9%761 W · 794 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox	61c	1,027$629 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$398.49	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees	65c	879.11$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.42	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago White Sox	21c	700$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553	1,796	43.8%786 W · 1,010 L	-33.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees	59c	649.08$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.48	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox	26c	579.95$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb93…94cfbacked New York Yankees	21c	534.76$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.38	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees	55c	528.2$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.29	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees	77c	507.79$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.18	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees	21c	489.42$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.78	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721e…3439backed Chicago White Sox	56c	438.59$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.98	34	79.4%27 W · 7 L	+7.1wins	+0.21per pick	58cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Chicago White Sox	73c	355.05$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.45	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox	56c	306.49$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.86	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Yankees	43c	285$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.55	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Chicago White Sox	21c	232$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.38	149	43.6%65 W · 84 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Chicago White Sox	20c	131.47$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.45	556	45.3%252 W · 304 L	-17.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x795b…a25cbacked New York Yankees	45c	124.22$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.9	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Chicago White Sox	59c	113.8$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.95	527	50.1%264 W · 263 L	+19.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago White Sox	45c	110.24$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.38	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees	21c	105$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Chicago White Sox	21c	100$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79	613	46.3%284 W · 329 L	+7.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed New York Yankees	52c	97.24$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	554	48.2%267 W · 287 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Chicago White Sox	56c	97$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.68	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Chicago White Sox	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	1,195	50%597 W · 598 L	+5.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Chicago White Sox	56c	84.75$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.29	151	47.7%72 W · 79 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Chicago White Sox	21c	80.1$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.28	165	39.4%65 W · 100 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Chicago White Sox	74c	76.39$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.86	287	49.5%142 W · 145 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Chicago White Sox	58c	61.87$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.2	733	55.3%405 W · 328 L	+22.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox	55c	61.77$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.8	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a99…a713backed Chicago White Sox	57c	61.3$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.36	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6e…f544backed New York Yankees	41c	60.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	341	39.9%136 W · 205 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84a3…44dcbacked New York Yankees	44c	55.55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	103	44.7%46 W · 57 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed New York Yankees	19c	55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	204	56.9%116 W · 88 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Chicago White Sox	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	488	51.6%252 W · 236 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Chicago White Sox	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	233	57.5%134 W · 99 L	+22.2wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed New York Yankees	23c	48$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	135	45.2%61 W · 74 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox	25c	45$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.66	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Chicago White Sox	64c	41.88$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.89	470	56.6%266 W · 204 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees	45c	41.04$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	2,021	39.5%798 W · 1,223 L	-25.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Yankees	43c	40.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees	56c	37.85$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Chicago White Sox	56c	37.22$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.38	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Chicago White Sox	62c	36.25$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.66	424	51.9%220 W · 204 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees	55c	36.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	2,144	39.6%849 W · 1,295 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Chicago White Sox	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	536	55.8%299 W · 237 L	+22.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed New York Yankees	44c	35.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	241	49%118 W · 123 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3c…9c66backed New York Yankees	44c	33.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Chicago White Sox	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	462	55.8%258 W · 204 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago White Sox	56c	25.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Chicago White Sox	56c	24.5$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.78	292	55.8%163 W · 129 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed New York Yankees	47c	24.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d18backed Chicago White Sox	74c	22.95$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa89…ccd2backed Chicago White Sox	57c	22.81$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	191	54.5%104 W · 87 L	-8.3wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Chicago White Sox	56c	21.11$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.29	788	54.6%430 W · 358 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Chicago White Sox	65c	20.31$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.11	268	57.1%153 W · 115 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Chicago White Sox	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	267	47.9%128 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Yankees	67c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Chicago White Sox	56c	17.86$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.86	224	50%112 W · 112 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked New York Yankees	69c	17.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	1,814	49.1%891 W · 923 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Chicago White Sox	74c	15.38$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	150	52.7%79 W · 71 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Chicago White Sox won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White SoxYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event