Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x345f7be99bb8d90b53a4b63bb6a444959cb503399f2360dc95e2eb8962ceb9b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 25c | 741.16$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.32 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 76c | 253.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 67c | 210.33$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.91 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 52c | 206$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 70c | 154.27$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 24c | 72.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 76c | 58.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 76c | 52.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 29c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2191…628ebacked Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked Yes | 70c | 27.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.