Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x346eb2ee84b46294bd26da7c7e6c72825a7b06734091e279be0837fb4b0738fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 526$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 369.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 367.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 284.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 230.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 75c | 182.63$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 147.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 146$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 138.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 16c | 117.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 116$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 78c | 102$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 84.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 18c | 81.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 22c | 78.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 68.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 77c | 64.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 58.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 58.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 79c | 39.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 37.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.