Weather · resolved market
2025 February hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347f02831ef1a270536ecc0ceacda4245ec9b5ebc9f3f1ae860bad4fdaad7615
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $409,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd16a…acdabacked Yes | 1c | 25,531$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 22,434$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.17 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 2c | 16,577$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes | 3c | 14,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,516$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 9,735$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.26 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ad…21b1backed Yes | 2c | 7,309$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 2c | 6,910$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,393$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf241…a9a8backed Yes | 13c | 4,975$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,326$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…5adebacked Yes | 1c | 4,312$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 4,128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,191$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…b7bfbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,920$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…be8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,793$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 1c | 2,774$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 3c | 2,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 1c | 2,433$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 14c | 2,028$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.95 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,810$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 5c | 1,718$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…dbc0backed Yes | 12c | 1,429$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf1…5475backed Yes | 8c | 1,428$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes | 1c | 1,335$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,325$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 7c | 1,310$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 1,119$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 10c | 1,108$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.38 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…5f91backed Yes | 1c | 1,075$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed Yes | 8c | 657.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…ae53backed Yes | 4c | 639.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…0349backed Yes | 13c | 522.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 21c | 481.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 13c | 451.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 4c | 436.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 10c | 390.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 310$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 280.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…3c0dbacked Yes | 8c | 264.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…d12ebacked Yes | 8c | 191.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 15c | 132.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 10c | 106.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…7304backed Yes | 25c | 47.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…f99fbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 50c | 27.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc6…ec2bbacked Yes | 62c | 17.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.