MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3481a3b5aa16d8df4e58fd04f159868d1848e8ad6cac6f675925250526548114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Nationals | 55c | 55,525$30,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,731.91 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Nationals | 45c | 26,806$12,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,141.54 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians | 51c | 26,317$13,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,823.18 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians | 44c | 22,016$9,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,288.95 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Guardians | 50c | 18,331$9,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,198.94 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 5c | 5,008$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.84 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 54c | 3,934$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.19 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians | 50c | 3,917$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.37 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Guardians | 41c | 3,463$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.4 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…77f5backed Nationals | 50c | 2,764$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals | 45c | 2,710$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.64 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Guardians | 38c | 2,458$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.3 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 52c | 2,302$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.41 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 46c | 1,836$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Guardians | 56c | 1,785$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.73 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Guardians | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Guardians | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Guardians | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Guardians | 51c | 900$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Nationals | 48c | 812.56$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.03 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Guardians | 50c | 793.25$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.63 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nationals | 26c | 730.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Guardians | 52c | 704.33$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.08 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Nationals | 21c | 628.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Guardians | 51c | 522.77$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.36 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nationals | 28c | 440.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Guardians | 56c | 328.21$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Nationals | 44c | 312.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Nationals | 47c | 301.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Guardians | 13c | 250$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Guardians | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Guardians | 51c | 184$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 70c | 168.53$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Guardians | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Nationals | 49c | 142.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Guardians | 51c | 142.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Nationals | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…ac06backed Guardians | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Nationals | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Guardians | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Guardians | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Guardians | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Guardians | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Nationals | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.