TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,817 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros50c4,110$2,050 inWon+$2,060.354,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox50c3,296$1,664 inLost-$1,664.18,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros49c1,139$558 inWon+$580.7510,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox51c983$502 inLost-$501.734,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox46c818.17$373 inLost-$373.3911,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Chicago White Sox51c204.55$105 inLost-$104.562,17239.9%866 W · 1,306 L+1.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros43c200$86 inWon+$1143,21951.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago White Sox57c164$93 inLost-$93.481,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4318…9a94backed Chicago White Sox42c97.86$41 inLost-$40.949443.6%41 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox51c94.07$48 inLost-$48.381,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros60c83.33$50 inWon+$33.336,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Houston Astros61c40.2$24 inWon+$15.879555.6%442 W · 353 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros61c40$24 inWon+$15.61,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Houston Astros61c40$24 inWon+$15.673949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Houston Astros61c36.88$22 inWon+$14.382,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox55c34$19 inLost-$18.634,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros50c20.17$10 inWon+$10.1590669.9%633 W · 273 L+94.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.