MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d73c5381e8fc2c206f38d536a8ee63947902e31870e6a5007f945868015013
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 1,463$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.39 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 1,056$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.54 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 835$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.8 | 4,107 | 57.6%2,366 W · 1,741 L | +65.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 46c | 381.37$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.94 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 379.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 280.56$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 184 | 57.6%106 W · 78 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 854 | 49.3%421 W · 433 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Chicago White Sox | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 49c | 141.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 47c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 99.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 35c | 94.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 92.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 86.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 77.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,255 | 58.3%732 W · 523 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago White Sox | 44c | 70.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 490 | 46.1%226 W · 264 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Houston Astros | 50c | 62.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 60.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 2,191 | 40%876 W · 1,315 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 42.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Houston Astros | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,045 | 52%543 W · 502 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Houston Astros | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.