MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x560ed9710a0ff6d059f28ee2920785bec1ca61eef2e3af9fa6a20a3669ea075e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 62c | 13,034$8,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,952.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 11,587$4,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,402.91 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 1,131$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 971$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.98 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 59c | 700.12$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.41 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 61c | 661.98$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 473.6$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 473.5$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.49 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 80c | 446.21$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 61c | 416.54$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.45 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Houston Astros | 20c | 319.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.26 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 289.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 249$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Houston Astros | 19c | 199.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.97 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 199.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 60c | 198$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 180$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros | 62c | 179.28$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Houston Astros | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 112.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 64c | 94.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 60c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 58.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Houston Astros | 62c | 56.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Houston Astros | 65c | 41.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 41.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 40.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 32.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 31.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Houston Astros | 44c | 31.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 29.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Chicago White Sox | 39c | 28.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Houston Astros | 62c | 27.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Houston Astros | 51c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 14.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.