Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34d230d87c78966d794544952d1131318c7fb17fc26f5d580a720d7bb1946de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 2c | 1,765$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 1,057$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 20c | 691.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 66c | 590.72$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.3 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 68c | 311.81$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 74c | 309.49$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 308.37$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 31c | 274.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 73c | 210.96$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 33c | 191.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 149.72$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 69c | 145.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 140.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 135.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 130.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 101.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 77c | 100.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 37c | 98.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 25c | 94.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 58c | 94.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 25c | 84.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 83.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 81.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 16c | 76.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 66c | 75.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 68.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 27c | 67.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 73c | 65.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…1c0bbacked No | 28c | 64.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 25c | 57.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 37c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 21c | 47.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 60c | 46.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 34.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 31.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 76c | 30.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 71c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…f521backed Yes | 77c | 22.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 79c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 61c | 17.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 66c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822c…a06abacked Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.