Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34d39dc0460b3d19f5a08dde98931301fa91dec7d171a01c800504133340fee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 629.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 78c | 506.77$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 445.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 77c | 356.54$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 340.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 338.16$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 17c | 333.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 22c | 331.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 287.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 43c | 228.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 196.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 12c | 191.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 165.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 24c | 165.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 159.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 42c | 142.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 16c | 137.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes | 25c | 124.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 124.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 123.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…269cbacked Yes | 22c | 116.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 115.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 15c | 110.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 20c | 96.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 92.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 21c | 84.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 19c | 81.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 74.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 80c | 71.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 16c | 67.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 19c | 66.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 62.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 19c | 60.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 52.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed No | 74c | 51.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…d9a3backed Yes | 29c | 50.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 38c | 49.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed No | 77c | 46.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 46.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 44.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 76c | 42.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 78c | 34.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 37c | 30.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 70c | 24.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 78c | 17.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.