TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6400…331abacked Yes50c303.49$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.8842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c292.36$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.951,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No39c286.1$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.011,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes42c246.72$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes42c234.12$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No40c217.2$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9611652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfdc…269cbacked No38c196.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c174.59$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.497,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed Yes64c155.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.992962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes62c151.06$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes64c150.25$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.847968.4%54 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick69cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No51c138.81$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5631542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No21c135.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0159021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06d7…af53backed Yes39c132.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.52128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c131.4$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.755,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes62c111.24$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.441,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes40c106.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.879,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c103.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed Yes60c101.46$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6219753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes59c99.55$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8218842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes70c99.42$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.94156.1%23 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes48c99.17$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes58c99.15$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5321142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes54c95.93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.842857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26d…039fbacked Yes56c95.22$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.681540%6 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes59c93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.139,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes62c90.38$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.631062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No28c89.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.531,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa998…6421backed Yes57c86.25$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.09728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce6…dd55backed No53c85.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.971650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No54c77.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.528746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes62c76.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.165834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No36c69.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fb…5fb7backed No45c65.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.546936.2%25 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes65c60.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.534,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes50c58.26$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.131,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes59c57.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.594362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No28c51.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.391,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No26c51.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.416740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes42c48.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes47c47.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.141733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No56c46.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8828954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x013a…e374backed Yes43c42.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.438432.1%27 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6deb…f584backed Yes58c40.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.240739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…0927backed Yes62c38.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7431…be26backed Yes53c37.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.731040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes41c37.63$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2623738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes47c36.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5132352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes48c36.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.789341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f2c…6e24backed No54c35.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.33423.5%8 W · 26 L-10.9wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes64c34.71$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.419449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No49c34.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.767754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes73c33.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c31.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x80e9…0b94backed Yes70c31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.341275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes44c30.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0726434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes39c29.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2926344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x171c…942dbacked No39c29.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.652045%9 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes61c29.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5820358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes66c29.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1211044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d56…92e6backed Yes47c28.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.173647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No55c28.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4137533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No42c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.764,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No40c26.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.536643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes41c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3422934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes56c25.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3920750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…4ac3backed Yes43c25.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.486048.3%29 W · 31 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15b5…ef23backed Yes41c24.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.583100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+201.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No42c24.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.248164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db3…8a7dbacked Yes57c24.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd371…8f17backed Yes63c23.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb6…2992backed No46c23.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.887116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No54c23.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7776371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a9…3003backed No55c23.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.692969%20 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes52c22.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8540242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.961,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes68c19.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.249547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No54c18.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.068253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No58c18.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes64c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036d…e888backed Yes62c16.76$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.377871.8%56 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes60c16.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.672,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.