South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34e1630c3246ac988cba6b102a1c3ad640cbe2e0e9bc39c88e550c1028590306
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 11,719$3,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,642.97 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 62c | 10,044$6,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,795.96 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 26c | 5,559$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 14c | 908.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked No | 56c | 744.43$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 32c | 701.68$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.54 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 68c | 513.32$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.13 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 17c | 323.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 30c | 201.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Yes | 46c | 177.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 55c | 129.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 16c | 123.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 34c | 104.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 192 | 64.1%123 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 42c | 99.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…0404backed Yes | 15c | 98.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 91.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 50c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Yes | 31c | 55.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 54.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…35aebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c39…d10bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cac…10b3backed Yes | 33c | 39.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 68c | 37.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 68c | 36.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 68c | 32.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…e107backed Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 45c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 36c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 69c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.