South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e2bff8c940ca2de63dd31e215c8712711c476b2a9f600651969bbb8f59bbd5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 12c | 6,045$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.02 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,452$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.4 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 1,441$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.99 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 639.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 542.28$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 2c | 459.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…6c73backed Yes | 22c | 364.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…40afbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 24c | 224$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…80abbacked Yes | 13c | 217$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…78adbacked No | 77c | 215$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 193.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cac…10b3backed Yes | 25c | 99.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 22c | 89.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 19c | 83.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 22c | 67.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 23c | 60.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 76c | 50.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cca…7cb3backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…63c7backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 80c | 31.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 79c | 26.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 77c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed No | 77c | 17.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 80c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 77c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?No won
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.