Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34ec41593472573d2c0b0177af739a86d94c391eff80cf542c1b482c8b7a05ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 384.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 345.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 72c | 207.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 148.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 31c | 133.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 107.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 105.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 105.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 103.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 101.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 101.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 71c | 98.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 13c | 91.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 90.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 89.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 59.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 47.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 68c | 47.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 32c | 46.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 45.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 67c | 45.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…9e62backed Yes | 26c | 40.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed No | 78c | 32.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 32.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 68c | 31.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 31.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 29.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 27.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 69c | 27.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 68c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 77c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.