Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf847cf828388414c94685655cd8428394d1615b97fe1dca07fd503737b122f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 321.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 73c | 300.77$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 18c | 276.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 21c | 268.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 51c | 251.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…4097backed Yes | 80c | 212.26$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 210.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 16c | 191.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 18c | 179.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 158.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 156.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 137.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 18c | 134.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798d…b91fbacked No | 78c | 127.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 125.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 17c | 94.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 14c | 80.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 16c | 71.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 57.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 56.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 52c | 49.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 41.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 52c | 36.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 35.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 73c | 34.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 21.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 79c | 18.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 61c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…017fbacked No | 80c | 12.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed No | 80c | 12.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.