World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34ee5456f78eeb91ae902e565143e175bdbb4ba23578f561850816c7e086a533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 1,118$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.58 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 465.86$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.34 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 253.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 22c | 224.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 166.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 152.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 147.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 136.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 134.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 118.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 93.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 42c | 81.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e094backed Yes | 33c | 79.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 71.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 63c | 66.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 65.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 60.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 42c | 60.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 59.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 74c | 54.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 50.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -78%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 44.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 31.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…3277backed Yes | 40c | 27.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a3fabacked No | 63c | 25.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…ca69backed Yes | 41c | 25.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40bf…9e13backed No | 60c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 24.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 77c | 17.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.