Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f4933be67c0b3844a08689b442479b601b96ea39b51da2db5dd27298ba876a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,036$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 69c | 665.44$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.72 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 34c | 375.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 177.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 176.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 132.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 73c | 121.21$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 120.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 55c | 114.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…245dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 79c | 80.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 26c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…67b6backed Yes | 76c | 79.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 78.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 73.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 73.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 32c | 71.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 38c | 69.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 68.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 65.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 24c | 63.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 60.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 47.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 46.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 30c | 45.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 48c | 41.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked No | 70c | 35.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 34.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 78c | 31.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 28.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 44c | 25.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 21.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 72c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 70c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.