Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350c698a6b0134d635e7c7e96626879090309b9aecf98deb6eb6dde881bd3664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ALIS VENTORUSof South America Rejects, ALIS VENTORUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 57c | 1,200$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.26 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked South America Rejects | 15c | 1,001$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked South America Rejects | 53c | 823.86$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.45 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 76c | 552.77$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed South America Rejects | 58c | 488.18$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.27 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed South America Rejects | 63c | 219.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed ALIS VENTORUS | 29c | 208.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.61 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed ALIS VENTORUS | 80c | 204.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed South America Rejects | 72c | 200.87$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed ALIS VENTORUS | 52c | 158.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 30c | 155.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked South America Rejects | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed ALIS VENTORUS | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked South America Rejects | 60c | 81.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked South America Rejects | 50c | 77.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed South America Rejects | 38c | 75.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ALIS VENTORUS | 64c | 68.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…3ca2backed South America Rejects | 75c | 65.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked ALIS VENTORUS | 54c | 51.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked South America Rejects | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed South America Rejects | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed South America Rejects | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…6fe1backed South America Rejects | 80c | 43.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed ALIS VENTORUS | 41c | 27.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 45c | 25.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 67c | 24.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed South America Rejects | 65c | 19.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group BALIS VENTORUS won
- Dota 2: South America Rejects vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 2 WinnerALIS VENTORUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.