TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: South America Rejects vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ALIS VENTORUSof South America Rejects, ALIS VENTORUS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,717
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,717 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913c…39b3backed ALIS VENTORUS52c7,645$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,674.3771454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects72c4,777$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,426.0696645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed South America Rejects1c2,441$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.411233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-37%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked ALIS VENTORUS39c1,608$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.381,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed ALIS VENTORUS50c1,561$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.5150449.2%248 W · 256 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked ALIS VENTORUS37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9916541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked South America Rejects43c1,163$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.5736654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked South America Rejects36c953.73$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.718745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked South America Rejects61c840.34$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.2194442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed ALIS VENTORUS30c765.26$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.9255147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked South America Rejects67c738.32$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.636759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed South America Rejects75c658.93$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.4261745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked South America Rejects67c555.35$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.5914157.4%81 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed ALIS VENTORUS35c554.22$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.128148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed ALIS VENTORUS74c532.44$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3845061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked South America Rejects46c436.08$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.449145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed ALIS VENTORUS39c401.74$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.0618356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed South America Rejects63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25261548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed ALIS VENTORUS38c390.94$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.3836343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed ALIS VENTORUS78c283.05$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9955457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda00…5c4dbacked ALIS VENTORUS34c280.51$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.159650%48 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa8…d75fbacked ALIS VENTORUS42c228.18$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.645534.5%19 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects56c217.63$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects65c158.87$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4367043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed South America Rejects63c148.41$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8720251%103 W · 99 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d28…87b5backed South America Rejects73c135.05$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.466860.3%41 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed South America Rejects31c132$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9412651.6%65 W · 61 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed South America Rejects75c131.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.525238.9%98 W · 154 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed ALIS VENTORUS31c130.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7120858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed ALIS VENTORUS55c125.28$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8825253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed ALIS VENTORUS52c121$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5216837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked ALIS VENTORUS53c117$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.435032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed South America Rejects10c116.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6217454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ALIS VENTORUS36c108.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.722,36747.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347d…098abacked South America Rejects65c107.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.931942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-37.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed South America Rejects31c104$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2525351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked ALIS VENTORUS54c101.28$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6669033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27e9…f09ebacked ALIS VENTORUS47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.58253.7%44 W · 38 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9637…cefdbacked South America Rejects73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731877.8%14 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked South America Rejects32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.339045.6%41 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked South America Rejects64c99.37$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.664123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked South America Rejects65c97.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6411534.8%40 W · 75 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed South America Rejects63c97.8$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.915064.7%97 W · 53 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed ALIS VENTORUS36c95.79$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.494641.3%19 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed South America Rejects31c93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8418248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed South America Rejects31c93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8420448%98 W · 106 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x02ea…11e1backed South America Rejects74c92.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed South America Rejects31c79.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5130250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked ALIS VENTORUS57c72.25$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.123555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed South America Rejects65c70.4$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.961,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked South America Rejects57c70.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9733554.6%183 W · 152 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked ALIS VENTORUS36c67.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0858250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed South America Rejects31c66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4721748.8%106 W · 111 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed South America Rejects30c65.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8546649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked ALIS VENTORUS42c64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.127255.6%40 W · 32 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaee9…95e5backed South America Rejects22c59.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.43333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked South America Rejects49c58.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.619951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ALIS VENTORUS44c58.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.92,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed South America Rejects31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2765337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x458d…8a59backed ALIS VENTORUS27c52.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.515829.3%17 W · 41 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked South America Rejects52c51.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.728547.4%135 W · 150 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed South America Rejects63c51.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1434561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked South America Rejects39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054548.4%264 W · 281 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed South America Rejects62c50.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1913262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…2b70backed South America Rejects28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1416453.7%88 W · 76 L+15.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed ALIS VENTORUS45c49.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2992561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeba1…838bbacked South America Rejects71c49.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.731872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked ALIS VENTORUS60c48.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3121650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked South America Rejects47c48.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6922740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed South America Rejects48c47.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9630647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3be…f543backed South America Rejects64c45.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3525457.9%147 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1676…ab19backed South America Rejects51c44.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.925545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked South America Rejects62c38.21$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.831,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3ec…2b5ebacked South America Rejects62c38.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55450%27 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8b…01e9backed South America Rejects46c37.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.324443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked ALIS VENTORUS37c36.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7427952.3%146 W · 133 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed South America Rejects34c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1236044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd30…9a01backed South America Rejects57c32.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4716054.4%87 W · 73 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfff1…12e4backed South America Rejects46c30.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2412937.2%48 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e47…bdbfbacked South America Rejects57c30.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2914963.1%94 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…f7cfbacked South America Rejects60c30.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…6237backed South America Rejects56c29.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.796149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5c1…d56dbacked ALIS VENTORUS56c29.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.152810.7%3 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed South America Rejects37c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6222552.4%118 W · 107 L+26.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked South America Rejects67c25.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0813762.8%86 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7560…1ee1backed South America Rejects42c24.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4821133.6%71 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ALIS VENTORUS78c13.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.861,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.