Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35365df9010509ea8938d2ac24342efb5986d32274ad5fcc5537289fd37500d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 270.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 33c | 159.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 155.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 101.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 79.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 74.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 33c | 69.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 68.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 53c | 66.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 37c | 65.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 59c | 53.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 48.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 53c | 44.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 71c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 45c | 41.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 31c | 39.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 35.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 34.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 31c | 34.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 64c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 49c | 28.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 28.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 69c | 27.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 22.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 66c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 68c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.