MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x355335c4c288a885a8c0a616a8c8c0810c5a3f9e6152981f60ef7de80706b299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 56c | 10,842$6,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,071.89 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 3,732$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 2,700$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.04 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 43c | 780.37$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.81 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 760.1$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 58c | 588.24$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.18 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Under | 43c | 482.9$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.25 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 45c | 429.76$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.37 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 402.65$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.46 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 336.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.96 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 323.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.38 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 43c | 229.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.97 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 45c | 214.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Under | 44c | 186.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 161$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 270 | 45.9%124 W · 146 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 44c | 144.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 45c | 132.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 20c | 110.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 110.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 45c | 107.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 45c | 105.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 45c | 105.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 51c | 71.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 55c | 68.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 45c | 59.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Under | 43c | 39.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 45c | 34.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Over | 57c | 33.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…1aeabacked Under | 55c | 26.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Under | 45c | 24.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Under | 55c | 24.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Under | 53c | 19.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 64c | 15.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.