Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x358742df96a5323540af54127825e5d55f6bc145180935e09a954fd7c6bc51b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Tundra Esports, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bf7…6d62backed Heroic | 53c | 931.22$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.67 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Heroic | 50c | 517.32$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.66 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Tundra Esports | 50c | 388.87$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 375.66$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 243.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Heroic | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Tundra Esports | 48c | 193.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…1cc2backed Tundra Esports | 49c | 148.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Heroic | 53c | 91.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Tundra Esports | 47c | 89.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 77.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Tundra Esports | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Heroic | 51c | 31.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageHeroic won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.