Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3588e2dc4354ca3139071c20857cb9bcf1a91fc4054ccec6dc8c075ccefae0ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 62c | 1,812$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.75 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 50c | 999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 342.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 249.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 160$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 20c | 54.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 47c | 53.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 27.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed Yes | 78c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 78c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 13.5m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13.5m and 14.5m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 14.5m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 11.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.