Movies · resolved market
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 13.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7903a8b2245fd02c5ef29f9810dcc8e0ecea05be303f066f4e5011415b7c90f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 73c | 3,825$2,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.97 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 28c | 3,020$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.76 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 20c | 999.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 27c | 655.9$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.73 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 427.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 216.11$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 32c | 145.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 20c | 134.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 27c | 123.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 57.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9d…eb9ebacked Yes | 23c | 53.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 42c | 50.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed No | 80c | 38.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 74c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 13.5m?this page
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 12.5m?Yes won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13.5m and 14.5m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 14.5m?No won
- Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 11.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.