Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x359e9727fee4f18cb9a7c8965782e8ba91137f514a35fe609a044c6af67ac848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 58c | 35,000$20,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,703.34 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 42c | 15,824$6,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,645.87 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed No | 42c | 6,148$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 42c | 3,160$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.2 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked No | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 62c | 2,822$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.49 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked No | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 46c | 1,724$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.36 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked No | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 35c | 1,533$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.49 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 42c | 1,400$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 21c | 980.84$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.7 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed No | 42c | 950$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 23c | 777.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 74c | 704$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.36 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 58c | 420.69$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 41c | 416$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.11 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 55c | 345.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 247$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 80c | 231.87$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 42c | 181.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 65c | 167.61$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 42c | 160.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 18c | 127.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 12c | 118.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 43c | 108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 14c | 97.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 42c | 86.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 42c | 85.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 43c | 50.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…af49backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…f4e5backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 73c | 43.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 73c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 73c | 25.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 42c | 25.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 73c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 44c | 24.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Yes | 73c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-17?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.