Premier League · resolved market
Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35a35597a446e2c27cab15fa5bbaa8a904f65894c623877ea28c832f82e26c73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d6c…dc37backed Under | 78c | 1,541$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 79c | 1,227$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.07 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 586.22$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.25 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 19c | 498.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.97 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 492.93$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 308.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 24c | 299.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.08 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 22c | 218.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.31 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 193.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 169.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 64c | 124.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 26c | 102.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 64c | 87.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 26c | 72.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Over | 62c | 70.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +169.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Under | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 22c | 50.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1b…c69cbacked Over | 41c | 41.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 38.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 26c | 38.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 69c | 34.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 279 | 48%134 W · 145 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 59c | 34.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…7ddebacked Under | 33c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a04…8305backed Under | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 80c | 19.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 73 | 69.9%51 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5)Middlesbrough FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.