Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9afe8b7b3328e941d18ea9c02ea2500329619af654ecf55bc875cbd424ff5d12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Middlesbrough FCof Middlesbrough FC, Watford FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Middlesbrough FC | 21c | 499.95$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.96 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Middlesbrough FC | 18c | 405$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Middlesbrough FC | 58c | 396.6$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.05 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Watford FC | 79c | 387.85$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.4 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Watford FC | 43c | 351$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.93 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Watford FC | 73c | 143.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Middlesbrough FC | 26c | 106$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Watford FC | 79c | 102.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…a1ecbacked Watford FC | 74c | 58.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Middlesbrough FC | 30c | 57.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked Middlesbrough FC | 28c | 48.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Middlesbrough FC | 46c | 37.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Watford FC | 55c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5)this page
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.