Premier League · resolved market
Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7048dbae8f3d2642a5ffdea85ba39f141e03b52e46b9c0f4288ff28a589f186c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 625.93$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.98 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 560$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 58c | 499.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 19c | 378$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 39c | 277$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Over | 61c | 270.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 38c | 245.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 225.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 59c | 206.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 191 | 45%86 W · 105 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 61c | 155.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 67c | 114.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 41c | 99.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 83.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 38c | 67.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…9408backed Over | 53c | 58.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 57c | 55.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 202 | 59.9%121 W · 81 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 38c | 44.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 40.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…844cbacked Over | 56c | 37.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5)Middlesbrough FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.