Premier League · resolved market
Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4120e4a1799163d561146cd0966c29fdf3f9c4d81a8a683927fb99da47382129
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,120$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 1,996$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.67 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 1,676$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.06 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 56c | 1,356$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.05 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 1,203$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.77 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 64c | 956.22$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.57 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 420.8$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.26 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 61c | 251.47$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 53c | 154.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 40c | 147.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 44c | 139.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 14c | 104.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 102.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 30c | 90.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 63.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 62.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 26c | 61.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 31c | 60.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 53.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Under | 52c | 46.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…269dbacked Under | 62c | 37.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Under | 75c | 32.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 74cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 60c | 31.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 57c | 23.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 79c | 20.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 49c | 20.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 61c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5)Middlesbrough FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.