MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b1bef0107ce1cd4108f66009101843437c33749ccc07a1a196f43ff81d81d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 63c | 4,056$2,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.41 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 36c | 1,992$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.06 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 40c | 978.94$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.37 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 36c | 624.5$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.89 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 32c | 254.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.8 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 80c | 199.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 20c | 179.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 80c | 163.59$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 12c | 142.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 12c | 142.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Over | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 13c | 132.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Over | 68c | 107.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 34c | 105.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Over | 55c | 60.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -17.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 44c | 58.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 32c | 49.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 24c | 46.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.